英语四级六级培训课程

个性化年代还没到来

时间:2022-5-2 作者:简学网

As 2014 drew to a close, I became one of the last baby boomers to turn 50. Or possibly, I became one of the first Generation Xers to reach that milestone. Depending where you draw the line, either I am about to enjoy the fruits of half a century of increasing affluence and entitlement, having climbed to the TOP of the hierarchy I help sustain; or I am entering a period of resentment about my smug elders’ lockhold on the best jobs and homes and the damage they have inflicted on the environment and humankind.

到2014年年底,我成为了婴儿潮一代中最后一批步入50岁的人。或者说,我成为了X一代(Generation X)中首批到达50岁的人。依据不一样的分界线,我或者是作为保持社会阶层结构并爬上了顶端的人,马上享受半个世纪以来日益增长的财富和福利的果实;或者是,对不可一世的长者牢牢占据了最好的工作和房屋、并对环境和人类导致损害,我开始步入一段愤怒的时期。

I am part of Generation Cusp. Businesses that treat me as a boomer will vex me with adverti百度竞价推广ents for products intended for grumpy pensioners (the oldest members of the postwar birth bulge are now in their late 60s), while those that market to me as a Gen Xer will annoy me by assuming I have something in common with overambitious 30-somethings.

我是处于交叉点的一代。把我视为婴儿潮一代的企业,会用针对脾气暴躁的退休老人的商品广告来烦我(战后出生率疯涨时期生的人中年龄最大的一些人,目前将近70岁),同样让我恼火的是,那些把我当作X一代的企业则假设我和那些过于雄心勃勃的30来岁的人有一些一同之处。

个性化年代还没到来

Such generational generalisations are only the crudest way companies decide what to sell and how to sell it. But much as I hate the stereotyping, there are good reasons why this will not be the year the personalised product and the personalised pitch come of age.

这种对一代人的泛化不过是企业决定销售哪种产品、与用何种方法销售商品的最粗略的方法。尽管我非常讨厌这种模式化,但仍有一些非常强是什么原因,讲解大家为什么今年还不会迎来个性化商品和个性化销售方案的年代。

Experts have long heralded the ability of manufacturers to use “mass customisation” to pimp my training shoes or your car. Insurers are eager to tailor their products to my personal driving habits. Personalised diagnostic tools and drug therapies —linked to patients’ DNA sequences — are on the horizon. With scant regard for our own privacy, we are already volunteering enough information to companies to allow them to launch more precise attacks on our wallets.

专家们早就预言制造商或有能力用“大规模定制”向我营销推广练习鞋,或者向你营销推广汽车。保险公司迫切地期望依据我的驾驶习惯量身定制商品。与患者的DNA序列有关联的个性化诊断工具和药物疗法在将来也会出现。大家对自己隐私考虑甚少,已经自愿把足够的信息提供给企业,让他们对大家的钱包发起更精准的攻击。

But the promise of personalisation has faded a bit since Chris Anderson got marketers all excited nine years ago with The Long Tail . In the book, he outlined the potential profit lurking in low-volume items at the end of the demand curve and warned that the 80/20 rule — the crude assumption that 20 per cent of products account for 80 per cent of sales — would “lose its bite”. Inspired, I spent some time in the late 2000s deliberately tweaking Amazon’s “recommended for you” lists, rating books I owned in the hope Jeff Bezos would find me the perfect novel — until I realised he did not care. Amazon, then as now, would rather sell me more of what I have just bought, or the latest bestsellers, than algorithmically analyse my taste in media and identify a handful of items at the underpopulated intersection of “Bill Murray movies” and “fiction by Richard Ford”.

但自从9年前克里斯?安德森(Chris Anderson)用一部《长尾理论》(The Long Tail)让所有些推广职员开心起来将来,个性化的前景就有的暗然失色。在书中,安德森概述了需要曲线末端销售量较低的商品潜藏的价值,并警告“二八定律”(80/20 rule),也就是粗略假设20%的商品产生80%的销售额的定律将“部分失效”。遭到启发后,我在2000年代晚期特意对我已在亚马逊(Amazon)上购买的书进行评分,好让它更换“有关推荐”清单,期望杰夫?贝索斯(Jeff Bezos)能帮我找到最好的小说,直到我意识到,他根本不在乎这事。和目前一样,亚马逊更想向我兜售更多我刚刚买到的书,或者最新的畅销书,而不是借助算法剖析我对媒体的品味,找出几本同时与“比尔?默里(Bill Murray)的电影”和“理查德?福特(Richard Ford)的小说”有关的小众书推荐给我。

Amazon’s attitude makes sense. Most companies stick with mass production and common product configurations, for technical or commercial reasons. Even Google— which commands even more data with which to personalise its services — touts its Android mobile phone operating system under the slogan “Be together. Not the same”. Tilting gently at Apple, the advertising plays to the idea that each Android user is an inpidual, but also part of a like-minded crowd. In reality, Google has to ensure its software works across the greatest number and range of devices, safe from malfunctions, abuses and piracy. The paradox is neatly summed up in one poster showing a crowd of Android robots, each differently dressed and equipped. Underneath, however, they are all still the same robot.

亚马逊的态度有其道理。很多企业出于技术或者商业是什么原因,坚持根据通常性商品配置进行大规模生产。即便是学会了更多数据、因此可以据此对商品进行个性化的Google(Google),对其Android手机操作系统的宣传语也是“和而不同”(Be together. Not the same)。这条广告温和地对苹果(Apple)进行了抨击,展示的理念是每一个Android用户不止是个体,也是思想一样的群体的一部分。然而事实上,Google需要确保它的软件能在数目和款型最多的设施上正常运行,不会出现失灵、滥用和盗版问题。这其中的矛盾在一幅海报上得到了精妙的概要,海报上有一群Android机器人,每个的穿着和装备都不同。然而,在外表之下,它们依然是相同的机器人。

Anita Elberse underlined in her recent book Blockbusters — which takes issue with the “long tail” thesis — that companies still mine a great deal of money from a few products that everybody wants to buy. “Because people are inherently social,” she wrote, “they generally find value in reading the same books and watching the same television shows and movies that others do.”

阿妮塔?埃尔贝斯(Anita Elberse)近期的著作《大片效应》(Blockbusters)对长尾理论提出了异议,觉得企业依旧可以靠每人都想购买的少数产品赚得盆满钵满。“由于人天生是社会性的,”她写道,“他们一般会从阅读别的人读过的书,观看别的人看过的电视剧和电影中探寻价值。”

In fact, research suggests an over-tailored pitch turns customers off. Either they find it too spookily precise, or — as Stanford marketing professor Itamar Simonson has written — they sense that, because it is so bespoke, it will not be a good deal.

事实上,研究表明过度定制的销售方案会让买家望而却步。要么是他们感觉定位过于精确,所以心生畏惧,要么就像斯坦福大学(Stanford)推广学教授伊塔马尔?西蒙森(Itamar Simonson)所写的那样,由于定规范太高,买家感觉不划算。

Generalisation will continue to be a useful business tool. More precise data will allow companies to generalise better. But the capacity for confusion will remain — in part because nobody fits neatly into just one category.

泛化将来仍将是一个有用的商业工具。更精确的数据能让企业更好地泛化。但困惑还将继续存在,部分缘由是没人能严丝合缝地被归入一类型别。

One of my favourite stand-up comedy lines comes from a joke in which God toys with the human race he is creating: “I know! I’ll make seven sexes and tell them there are only two!” Lacking His omniscience, companies, generally speaking, would be wise to continue to rely on humans to do their own personalisation.

我最喜欢的单人脱口秀台词来自一个笑话,上帝戏耍他创造的人类:“我了解啦!我会创造7种性别,然后告诉他们只有两种!”没上帝的全知,一般来讲,继续被人们自己进行个性化才是企业的明智之举。

声明:本文内容由互联网用户自发贡献自行上传,本网站不拥有所有权,未作人工编辑处理,也不承担相关法律责任。如果您发现有涉嫌版权的内容,欢迎发送邮件至:qpkjz@qq.com 进行举报,并提供相关证据,工作人员会在5个工作日内联系你,一经查实,本站将立刻删除涉嫌侵权内容。